Alec Hogg

ALEC HOGG

IN an ideal world where days are 36 hours and there are no financial commitments, I’d go back to my Racing Digest days and rebuild a collateral form database.

Assessing runners on collateral form – how they perform against each other and common past rivals – is the best way of finding winners, sometimes at long prices. But it need the luxury of plenty time. If you possess that, studying collateral form will provide a handsome reward, especially for older horses whose ability has been exposed.

The next best thing for me is Formgrids. It took a little getting used to the colour codes, but it’s now indispensible. Even when I don’t really know the runners, a few minutes browsing David Safi’s invention gives me enough information to make an educated call.

My starting point in a race is the pedigree. If I’ve got the time, I’ll look up the price which each horse fetched at the sale. These two features  provide an excellent idea about the quality of the individual – now that we’ve been breeding our own, it’s quite obvious early on what kind of an athlete you have on your hands, and the auction is pretty astute at ascribing the right kind of value to them.

Even though some horses take a while to produce their potential, class does tell. I’m conservative by nature so apart from my own horses, will need to feel very confident before having an interest in a race. It will usually be a place bet and for an amount well within my means to ensure there’s no gnashing of teeth if the horse gets left or the jockey doesn’t shine.

One of the most important lessons I have learnt about betting is to swing only at the “fat pitch” – in other words, restrict my bets to those times when I’m really confident about the horse’s chances. Trying to win on every race is like pumping money into a slot machine: the odds are too heavily against you for a profit to be generated over any sustained period. Rather pick one or two bets on the day and swing at them.

I try never forget how big a part courses play in the results. The long straights at Clairwood and the Turffontein standside track take away much of the risk that comes with racing. The tighter tracks with short straights – Greyville and Durbanville – can be lotteries, with a huge premium on jockeyship.

The Vaal’s 1400m and 1600m turf races, being down the straight, suit some horses brilliantly but not others. Finally, trainers and the pilots are important, especially in marathon events (2400m upwards) where fitness and judgment of pace often leads to the lesser talented but better managed horse prevailing.

-Alec Hogg is the founder of Moneyweb, racehorse owner, breeder and owner of Graceland Farm, Mooi River.